Key West The Newspaper

by Dr. Larry Murray…….

Since the publication of my article, “Show Me the Money”, additional information has come my way regarding the School District’s contractual agreement(s) with NMSI for assistance with broadening participation and increasing scores in Advanced Placement classes.

Perhaps the most important thing that I have learned is that no one really knows how much money the program will cost. There is general agreement that a whole lot of money is in play, 6 figures and perhaps 7 figures, but there is no universal understanding as to what the final numbers will be.

According to one School Board member, the program will cost ONLY $90,000 if the District opts out after the first year. It is amazing how perspective changes when the larder is full. Another School Board member tells me that the program could cost as much as $2.5 million if it runs the full 4 years.

A third School Board member wanted to parse the word “cost”. According to his reckoning, the only real costs to the School District are those paid from property taxes. Other funds do not actually count toward determining “cost”. For example, in the first year, the Department of Defense is providing a $300,000 grant. That, I am told, should not be considered a “cost” to this District.

The District decided that instead of signing a 4 year contract, it would enter into a series of 4 one year agreements. The School Board thought it was being sly to have the option of severing its relationship with NMSI at the close of any one of those years.

However, it is not entirely certain that, should the District continue with NMSI for year 2 and later, the DOD grant will be available for subsequent years. There is an application process, no guarantee. That, by my math, could cost as much as $900,000 and the availability or lack thereof from DOD could be a critical determinant as to whether to continue the contract.

Similarly, the state is putting $147,000 into the pot for year 1. How much of that will continue, perhaps increase, depends on student performance. The state formula for determining the amount provided the School District varies each year, up or down, contingent on the number of students with satisfactory scores. The NMSI College Readiness Program promises very significant increases in both participation and success. Their projections are ambitious to say the least, between 200% and 300% over 3 years. We shall see.

The School Board will have to make a decision no later than sometime in August , 2016 as to whether or not to continue. One would assume that such a decision would be based upon how well or how poorly NMSI met its primary goal, scores of 3 or above in the AP classes.

Unfortunately, those scores will not be available until after August 31, 2016, most likely September if past years are any indicator. That being the case, what will drive the School Board’s decision to renew or not? Most likely, it will be anecdotal evidence such as the letter grades issued by the local instructors. All I can say is “Good luck!” There are a lot of balls floating in the air, not to mention a whole lot of somebody’s money. The School Board could vote to renew and find that decision very shrewd. Or, it could vote to renew only to find that NMSI’s projections were just so much smoke and mirrors. The prospect of buyer’s remorse looms large.